liveonearth (liveonearth) wrote,
liveonearth
liveonearth

QotD: If Learning, Not Gloating, Is the Goal

"A single dot on a canvas is not a painting and a single bet cannot resolve a complex theoretical dispute.  This will take many questions and question clusters.  Of course it's possible that if large numbers of questions are asked, each side may be right on some forecasts but wrong on others and the final outcome won't generate the banner headlines that celebrity bets sometimes do.  But as software engineers say, that's a feature, not a bug.  A major point of view rarely has zero merit, and if a forecasting contest produces a split decisions we will have learned that the reality is more mixed than either side thought.  If learning, not gloating, is the goal, that is progress."
--Tetlock, Philip and Gardner, Dan, in p269 in Superforecasting; The Art and Science of Prediction 2015.
Tags: awareness, belief, consciousness, heroes, media, medicine, politics, quotes, reason, science
Subscribe

  • Wolverine Watchmen: Wannabe X-men vs the Feds

    I've been interested in human xenophobia (which I think is instinctive) and race and class warfare since I become politically aware some time in…

  • A Request of Runners in Pandemic Times

    Living in an urban area I, like many, exercise in the park. I was doing so before the pandemic started and I have continued. My local park is big…

  • I, too, sing America

    I, too, sing America. I am the darker brother. They send me to eat in the kitchen When company comes, But I laugh, And eat well, And grow strong.…

  • Post a new comment

    Error

    Comments allowed for friends only

    Anonymous comments are disabled in this journal

    switch
    default userpic

    Your reply will be screened

    Your IP address will be recorded 

    Help
  • 0 comments